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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to SEA 28, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 12 yards (41-A.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP