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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2018-12-10 · 20:15 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

MIN
32.3%
SEA
67.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

Chad Beebe WR Out Hamstring
David Morgan TE Out Knee
Trae Waynes CB Out Concussion
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Rib

SEA

K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
D.J. Fluker G Doubtful Hamstring
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Hip
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Ankle
Tre Madden RB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 7
–
SEA 21

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:15 FG SEA (14:15) 11-S.Janikowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 3
  • Q4 13:26 FG SEA (13:26) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 0 – SEA 6
  • Q4 02:57 TD SEA (2:57) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SEA 12
  • Q4 02:49 TD SEA (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -7 yards (59-J.Martin). FUMBLES (59-J.Martin) [59-J.Martin], RECOVERED by SEA-28-J.Coleman at MIN 29. 28-J.Coleman for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SEA 20
  • Q4 01:17 TD MIN (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 33-D.Cook for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – SEA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:34) 6-M.Wile punts 45 yards to SEA 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 5 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Martin.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:02) 6-M.Wile punts 38 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for no gain (30-C.Ham; 42-B.Gedeon). PENALTY on SEA-35-M.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 21.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (14:15) 11-S.Janikowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:33) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%

    (8:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to MIN 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:00) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to SEA 28, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 12 yards (41-A.Harris).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%

    (2:25) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to MIN 39 for 2 yards (42-B.Gedeon, 54-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on MIN-98-L.Joseph, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 21%

    (11:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to MIN 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:51) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (2:05) 69-R.Hill reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right guard to SEA 40 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 55-F.Clark). Penalty on MIN-69-R.Hill, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (13:26) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SEA 41, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-24-S.Luani. Ball illegally touched at SEA41.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (5:46) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-B.Wagner), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.