Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(11:34) 6-M.Wile punts 45 yards to SEA 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 5 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.52 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model