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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to MIN 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model