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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 69-R.Hill reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray right guard to SEA 40 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 55-F.Clark). Penalty on MIN-69-R.Hill, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model