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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model