4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP