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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-B.Wagner), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model