Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 21 – New England Patriots 27

(2:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 20 for 5 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model