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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NE
68.7%
MIA
31.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) +0.001 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.155 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 26
–
MIA 18
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NE

Dwayne Allen TE Questionable Knee
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Ankle

MIA

Jake Brendel C Out Calf
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33
–
MIA 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:17 TD NE (8:17) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 46-J.Develin right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 05:37 TD MIA (5:37) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-K.Stills for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:19 TD NE (14:19) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12 – MIA 7
  • Q2 13:36 TD MIA (13:36) 38-B.Bolden right tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIA 13
  • Q2 10:39 TD NE (10:39) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – MIA 14
  • Q2 07:33 TD MIA (7:33) 38-B.Bolden up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – MIA 20
  • Q2 03:56 TD NE (3:56) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-12-T.Brady was injured during the play. His return is Probable. NE 26 – MIA 21
  • Q3 04:04 TD MIA (4:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-B.Butler for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – MIA 27
  • Q4 06:50 FG NE (6:50) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – MIA 28
  • Q4 00:21 FG NE (:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 33 – MIA 28
  • Q4 00:07 TD MIA (:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-K.Stills to MIA 45 for 14 yards. Lateral to 11-D.Parker to MIA 48 for 3 yards. Lateral to 32-K.Drake for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 33 – MIA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to MIA 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 28 for 7 yards (43-N.Ebner; 53-K.Van Noy).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 59-A.McClellan, Center-92-J.Denney, RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Humber at MIA 24. 50-R.Humber to MIA 18 for 6 yards (38-B.Bolden).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 20 for 5 yards (34-S.Perry).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to MIA 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 32 for 9 yards (84-C.Patterson). FUMBLES (84-C.Patterson), ball out of bounds at MIA 32.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 22 for 2 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (6:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 8 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:35) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (6:50) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:34) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 27, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.