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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 72

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to MIA 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 32 for 9 yards (84-C.Patterson). FUMBLES (84-C.Patterson), ball out of bounds at MIA 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP