Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 21 – New England Patriots 27

(10:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 22 for 2 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model