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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 24

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model