Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 28 – New England Patriots 27

(10:35) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model