Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 28 – New England Patriots 30

(4:34) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 27, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.74 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model