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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 30 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP