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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 68

New England Patriots 6 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to MIA 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 28 for 7 yards (43-N.Ebner; 53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP