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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP