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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

NYJ
38.7%
BUF
61.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.150 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.117 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Sam Darnold in place of Josh McCown)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYJ

Robby Anderson WR Questionable Ankle
Isaiah Crowell RB Questionable Toe
Jordan Leggett TE Questionable Knee
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Shoulder

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Out Shoulder
Derek Anderson QB Out Concussion
Jason Croom TE Doubtful Groin
Isaiah McKenzie WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 27
–
BUF 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:19 TD BUF (9:19) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 04:39 FG NYJ (4:39) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – BUF 7
  • Q1 01:15 TD BUF (1:15) 19-I.McKenzie left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End-around, handoff from J.Allen. NYJ 3 – BUF 13
  • Q2 11:13 FG NYJ (11:13) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – BUF 14
  • Q2 07:18 FG BUF (7:18) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. NYJ 6 – BUF 17
  • Q2 06:35 TD NYJ (6:35) (Shotgun) 40-T.Cannon up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – BUF 17
  • Q3 13:26 FG BUF (13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. NYJ 13 – BUF 20
  • Q4 12:17 TD NYJ (12:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-R.Anderson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 7 yds. into end zone. NYJ 19 – BUF 20
  • Q4 02:35 FG BUF (2:35) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. NYJ 20 – BUF 23
  • Q4 01:22 TD NYJ (1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – BUF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 25 for 4 yards (51-B.Copeland).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (4:39) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (11:13) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (7:18) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

    (3:19) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:17) 8-M.Darr punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (7:54) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 19%

    (6:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (2:35) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.