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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP