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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 41

New York Jets 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP