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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 8-M.Darr punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP