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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 25 for 4 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.41 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP