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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 29

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model