Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 32 for 8 yards (25-E.Harris). PENALTY on LV-25-E.Harris, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model