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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

PIT
72.1%
OAK
27.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 29
–
OAK 20
Projected margin: PIT by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

James Conner RB Out Ankle
Marcus Gilbert T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Back
Anthony Chickillo LB Questionable Ankle

OAK

Maurice Hurst DT Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Toe
Doug Martin RB Questionable Knee
Seth Roberts WR Questionable Concussion
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Hamstring
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 21
–
OAK 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:47 TD LV (10:47) 97-C.McDonald and 68-D.Sharpe reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – OAK 6
  • Q2 12:22 TD PIT (12:22) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 22-S.Ridley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 08:08 FG LV (8:08) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. PIT 7 – OAK 10
  • Q2 00:14 TD PIT (:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – OAK 10
  • Q4 05:25 TD LV (5:25) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 86-L.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – OAK 16
  • Q4 02:59 TD PIT (2:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – OAK 17
  • Q4 00:25 TD LV (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 85-D.Carrier for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-76-J.Feliciano was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PIT 21 – OAK 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:49) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LV 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:02) 5-J.Townsend punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 33 for 9 yards (55-M.Lee; 41-K.Smith).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 82%

    (8:08) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (4:33) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 32 for 8 yards (25-E.Harris). PENALTY on LV-25-E.Harris, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 25%

    (12:41) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to LV 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:28) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to PIT 26, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 37 for 11 yards (83-D.Waller).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 45%

    (6:53) 5-J.Dobbs pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to LV 42 for no gain (59-T.Whitehead).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 28%

    (14:49) 5-J.Townsend punts 32 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on LV-23-N.Nelson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:17) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LV 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 90%

    (8:24) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard left tackle to PIT 15 for 5 yards (97-C.Heyward).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 85-D.Carrier for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-76-J.Feliciano was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.