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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to PIT 26, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 37 for 11 yards (83-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model