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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 5-J.Dobbs pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to LV 42 for no gain (59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.82 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model