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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 5-J.Townsend punts 32 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on LV-23-N.Nelson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model