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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LV 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model