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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 85-D.Carrier for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-76-J.Feliciano was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP