Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(4:02) 5-J.Townsend punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 33 for 9 yards (55-M.Lee; 41-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model