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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model