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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
18.7%
ATL
81.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.249 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.221 vs Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.279 EPA/dropback
  • ATL defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
ATL 29
Projected margin: ATL by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Budda Baker S Questionable Knee
Deone Bucannon LB Questionable Chest
Chad Williams WR Questionable Hamstring

ATL

Terrell McClain DT Out Toe
Ito Smith RB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 14
–
ATL 40

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:30 TD ARI (8:30) 31-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 06:21 TD ATL (6:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (44-V.Beasley) at ARI 41. 45-D.Jones for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – ATL 6
  • Q1 00:41 FG ATL (:41) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ARI 7 – ATL 10
  • Q2 12:36 TD ATL (12:36) 2-M.Ryan right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – ATL 16
  • Q2 05:21 FG ATL (5:21) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ARI 7 – ATL 20
  • Q2 00:19 TD ATL (:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-55-Cha.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 7 – ATL 26
  • Q3 05:49 TD ATL (5:49) 26-T.Coleman left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – ATL 32
  • Q4 11:20 TD ATL (11:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-J.Hardy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – ATL 39
  • Q4 03:19 TD ARI (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short right to 16-T.Sherfield for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – ATL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ARI 30, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ATL 44 for 26 yards (28-J.Bethel). PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to ARI 43, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:59) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:41) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:34) 2-A.Lee punts 64 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 21 for 10 yards (30-R.Ford).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (5:21) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:52) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Condo, downed by ATL-83-R.Gage.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:18) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 22 for 8 yards (83-R.Gage).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:40) 2-A.Lee punts 36 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:01) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to ATL 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-M.Hall to ATL 33 for 10 yards (59-J.Walker). PENALTY on ATL-83-R.Gage, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 23.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:14) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (5:23) (Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ATL 21 for 12 yards (34-B.Poole).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short right to 16-T.Sherfield for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 32 for 7 yards (42-D.Riley).