Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 26

(13:18) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model