Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 26

(7:40) 2-A.Lee punts 36 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model