Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 40

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to ATL 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-M.Hall to ATL 33 for 10 yards (59-J.Walker). PENALTY on ATL-83-R.Gage, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 23.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model