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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 40

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short right to 16-T.Sherfield for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP