Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(7:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to ARI 43, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model