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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP