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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model