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Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Saturday 2018-12-15 · 20:20 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE
37.3%
DEN
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (DEN): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CLE

Austin Corbett T Out Foot
Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion
Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Knee
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Biceps
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

DEN

Chris Harris CB Out Fibula
Isaac Yiadom CB Out Shoulder
Shaquil Barrett LB Out Hip
Derek Wolfe DE Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:59 TD CLE (11:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 03:24 TD DEN (3:24) 4-C.Keenum scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 08:21 FG DEN (8:21) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. CLE 7 – DEN 10
  • Q2 04:57 FG CLE (4:57) 17-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 10 – DEN 10
  • Q3 01:45 FG DEN (1:45) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. CLE 10 – DEN 13
  • Q4 11:49 TD CLE (11:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-A.Callaway for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – DEN 13
  • Q4 04:39 FG DEN (4:39) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. CLE 17 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to CLE 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (8:21) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (4:57) 17-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 30 for 7 yards (27-T.Thomas). PENALTY on DEN-40-K.Bierria, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 23.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 45 for 8 yards (11-R.Cracraft; 47-J.Jewell).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 44%

    (7:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to DEN 40 for 5 yards (34-W.Parks). Penalty on DEN-34-W.Parks, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (1:45) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (4:39) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-D.Booker to 50 for 15 yards (55-G.Avery).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 39 for -11 yards (22-J.Peppers).