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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 30 for 7 yards (27-T.Thomas). PENALTY on DEN-40-K.Bierria, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model