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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to DEN 40 for 5 yards (34-W.Parks). Penalty on DEN-34-W.Parks, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.09 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model