Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(11:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to CLE 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model