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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 11

Denver Broncos 13 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model