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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model