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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model