Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- Andrew Luck (IND): +0.151 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- IND defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DAL defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
DAL
IND
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:13 TD IND (6:13) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – IND 6
- Q2 00:02 FG IND (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 10
- Q3 11:27 TD IND (11:27) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – IND 16
- Q3 01:41 FG IND (1:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 20
- Q4 07:01 FG IND (7:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%
(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(14:15) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 5 for -2 yards (35-P.Desir). FUMBLES (35-P.Desir), and recovers at IND 5. DAL-76-X.Su'a-Filo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 54%
(3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 19 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 39%
(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to IND 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on DAL-91-L.Ladouceur, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 6.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%
(7:53) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to IND 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-C.Rogers to IND 11 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).
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Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%
(1:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 59%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Beasley (53-D.Leonard).
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Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(7:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%
(4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 17-A.Hurns to IND 41 for 9 yards (35-P.Desir, 29-M.Hooker).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%
(3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 89-B.Jarwin INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Odum at IND 8. 30-G.Odum to IND 22 for 14 yards (52-C.Williams).