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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model